My articles at Scorum

       I've been recently invited to join the Scorum community and the very most of my original texts will be published there 1st. I remain open for proposals to write for private syndicates or investors in the Brazilian Serie A football for the time being as one of my partnerships is due to expire and my own syndicate plans should take a while before unfolding.

Below you have an article about Libertadores Outright Betting Scenario

https://scorum.com/en-us/betting/@lucasmondelo/libertadores-outright-betting-analysis

Gremio VS Atl. MG (AH Preview, Brazil A R13)

Gremio: The hosts have proved to be good at their domains on several occasions during past seasons and that's not exactly breaking news atm, the good and perhaps not-much-noticed value of Gremio lies upon the fact the team usually remains cold e.g. when they suffer early goals at home. The hosts fans are very demanding and usually booing during 1st half isn't a rare thing if they feel the side is underperfoming. In sum, strong hosts with a strong predicted line-up. I don't worry much about the news that Kanneman CB has caught a cold and didn't train during the week because the 1st choice sub CB Bressan seems very good atm, not world class like Kanneman but surely good enough to form a strong cb duo with International Geromel.

Atlético MG: We are yet to see how the selling of Roger Guedes ATT will affect their capacity of "having teeth to bite" upfront, but I still must highlight they had a very solid first semester and their 2nd post is definitely not undeserved.

Asian Handicap Scenario: My fair lines for Gremio's victory lie in the house of 55 to 60%, meaning that the fair line must be somewhere between -0.5 and -0.75, Gremio has been a side able to counter-attack efficiently when ahead altough their coach doesn't hesitate to become fully defensive missing sth like 15 minutes in a scenario they are ahead by 1.

I usually don't like Gremio overs because their defenders are very good and so is the GK, meaning the potential damage of their oiled attack is somewhat "eaten" by that. Perhaps this could be somewhat anulled by the (not confirmed) absence of Kanneman, but still, A.MG just sold a key striker meaning we don't have anything particularly burning towards unders or overs, my fair lines sth like Over 2.5 @1.9 which is standard line for Brazil.

Potential bets: As I write, Gremio -1/2 ball is selling at 1.73 average on oddsportal, which means my lines are about even. I like the idea of buying Gremio at this handicap if down by one unless if sth boils too unexpectedly such as a red card or sth of that nature.

Over 2.5 is running @2.29 which might be a bit of a big price, but still, for me, no early market bets.

In-running bets on Gremio if down the score could be good here, and perhaps that's it.

Brazil A Update 5/10: Atlético MG

First Semester Analysis: Atlético MG has been a strong host so far this season. The side relied a lot on their attackers Ricardo Oliveira and Roger Guedes. We also have a good seasoned GK Victor who has been part of the international selection for some time, but also interesting midfielders and defenders. They are at a comfortable 2nd post on the verge of the Serie A return.

Roger Guedes has just left the side to play in China, the players owner (Palmeiras) sold him to Chinese side Shandong Luneng, and that is the kind of market movement which could be of importance. He was part of an oiled attack of good success so far in the season.

I don't like the coach situation simply because 10 seasons of Brazilian football covered professionaly tell me that interims that start well tend to become problematic far more often than they become solid new names in the market. It's pure math and history actually, and I expect coaches with a "small name" to be a potential issue whenever the pressure becomes too strong.

Summarizing... I like the squad but the coach name doesn't seem fit for a club as big as A.MG.
Probably a good team to be bought at home under valuable prices, i.e. e.g. down by 1 during 1st half against mid to poor visitors.

Brazil A update 4/20: Cruzeiro (Brazil Cup impressions)

Yesterday we had the return of Brazilian Football via the national cup fixture against Atlético PR. Cruzeiro could draw to go through to the next cup phase so 1x1 was what they needed.

A few interesting details could be observed about Cruzeiro, the current title holders:

We still have a very solid GK (Fábio), the defensive line of 4 seems heavy in terms of names but could still improve considering their potential, Edilson could become more of a RWB like his Gremio days, and Dedé CB afterall is still recovering from recurrent, several injuries in a row. Léo seemed decent, and the LB also wasn't a positive or negative highlight.

In terms of highlights, Rafael Sóbis played like an a winger or attacker that was "very linked " to the midfielders actions and that opened lots of spaces all the way through Atlético's team.

He had also a fantastic long distance shot from outside the box that has almost beaten the Atlético GK.

The biggest lesson about Cruzeiro seems to be that they look like a decent host to back over this 2nd part of season, to be observed closely especially when nice opportunities such as down by 1 against mid to poor teams show up.

Brazil A Update 3/20: Internacional

INTER'S FIRST SEMESTER: They had a modest performance at the Brazilian Cup and the Regional Gauchão, the club is in a deep financial crisis which has many details that could fill 15-20 pages easily on the matter. Inter has been more consistent than many had expected, however, some teams like Gremio rested players in occasions related to cup games.

Inter is recovering from a dramatic relegation which melted deeply  their institutional peace amongst fans/dirigents and press in the crossfire too. We could saw that considering only the non-relegation goal they are doing well

Their capitain and old Attacking Midfielder D'Alessandro has been injured during the moments they have collected these points, which leads us onto..

WORLD CUP BREAK TEAM NEWS/UPDATES: There haven't been breaking news signings or departures. However some gossip about a fight between sub AM Camilo and the capitain, because of a rumoured affair with his wife or whatever, some "the sun cover" menace like that, has been subject of much stress from D'Alessandro, he even went to a police station to register a formal complaint against dozens of people, and the police agreed that he "had reasons" meaning fans of Gremio or whatever were abusing his family in the on-line world about the "matter".

He has also been complaining that "some people" don't want him back at the team after this winnings period, implying that he could somehow have been the cause of issues or that his return could jeopardize them, sth like that.

The "no news big news" scenario is far from this one, but we also don't have any solid issue. Inter has to be followed closely as the recent past suggest that they collapse fastly when under particular situations such as early goals of visitors at their home or other sources of pressure from fans.

In a nutshell, too many fragile things in their entire club/fans/press universe since their return.

PREDICTIONS AND ASIAN HANDICAP
I think they have collected a nice % of points so far and they'd really have to underperform and absolutely meltdown to relegate again, but they seem weak to sustain a dispute for the "direct group stage qualification spots" of Libertadores.  IMO an indirect qualification could be a rather realistic goal.

I'm a big fan of In-Running bets in Brazil and Inter could offer value here, meaning that a few signs of immediate collapse could mean good AH value before a complete avalanche.

Brazil A Update 2/20 - Flamengo

FLAMENGO'S FIRST SEMESTER: Flamengo ended the "pre-world cup" 12 rounds as leaders.

They are alive at all competitions that matter (Serie A, Brazil Cup and Libertadores). However, they face Gremio at the Cup, which is a competition that their adversaries are the biggest winners in history together with Cruzeiro, who they also face in Libertadores. The point here is Flamengo has been seeded harshly towards difficult Brazilian teams in the cups, and they ended 1st in the table by round 12. This is leading towards a potentially interesting info in the AH market (last paragraph).

They ended well this part of the year but it's not looking like they got any stronger during the break

RUMOURS AND TEAM NEWS DURING THE CUP TIME: The limited interim coach will stay, also, they lost an important player (Vinicius Junior) who will finally join Real Madrid (either to play or be loaned within Europe to become lesser greener). IMO it's basically bad news for Flamengo.

ASIAN HANDICAP POTENTIAL BARGAINS

A key attacker is leaving, and a coach with little name is staying indefinitely. This is the kind of thing that hardly ever works longer than half a season in Brazil. Flamengo is perhaps the club with the biggest club/press pressure and a coach without a name could not resist when key fixtures start being placed every other 3.5 days. 

I guess the most relevant thing is they have factors that could push their very good % of points collected so far to a lower one. 

There's a nother tip too...

There is an understanding in the press that a peculiar situation in the schedule of fixtures might inffluence how Flamengo and Gremio will face the fixture. Fla and Gremio will play at cup and Serie A in the same week, and there's a general understanding that they desire opposite things the most, i.e. Gremio wants Cup Fla the Serie A, so some kind of dirty exchange of pseudo favors could be seen, i.e. Gremio Regulars VS Fla Sub team @ Cup and Flamengo Regs VS Gremio subs @ Serie A.

This is a fact to be observed.

Brazil VS Belgium AH Market Analysis

BRAZIL VS BELGIUM - WORLD CUP QUARTER-FINALS

I have been following closely the World Cup and IMO there's no scenario in which I could agree on such a handicap on Brazil. It's obvious that tradition count and what is called in Brazil the "weight of the shirt" meaning the historical record of Brazil's 5 titles and Belgium being pressured to make history is a factor, but IMO Brazil has displayed significant flaws all over Group Stage and particularly against Mexico.

If Brazil conceeds all the space through the middle and the wings they allowed Mexico to have IMO Belgium will have an easy way towards the semis. Japan looked keener than Brazil today in terms of protecting their defensive area (1st 1/3 of the pitch).

Formations seem to be very problematic for Brazil in this World Cup, and IMO the way Belgium plays could unlock Brazil's defensive flaws far easier than any other adversary they faced in this WC.

When Brazil is defending through the "middle of the middle" they look like a 4-3-3, but when they are coming back from attack and Coutinho is ahead, the thruth is they have been looking more like a messy 4-2-4.

Casemiro is indeed a key player of their midfield and if we see such a strong Belgian midfield with a 3-6-1 formation like the 2nd half against Japan, chances should flourish for Belgium.

I also think that Brazil would have serious aerial threats if we see Lukaku, Fellaini, Witsel, Kompany and Vertonghen together trying to head.

I'm completely aware that Belgium displayed several problems when defending from Japan's counter-attacks, and Brazil might have good chances through both wings with Willian and Neymar. IMO that is the very aspect of the game that levels things in terms of chances.

If I saw some advantage I'd tend to see it for Belgium. Of course we can consider the pressure they will feel once again and perhaps Brazil feels the historical weight on their side, but through to be told the team has proven to be quite anxious and IMO that simply doesn't explain a heavy advantage between 1/2 and 1/4 ball such as we are seeing in the Asian Handicap as of now.

If you don't believe Brazil is that good like I do and Belgium has decent winning chances then +0.25 @2.1+ seems very good.

If, however, you think the AH is unbalanced but not that keen on Belgium, you might want to buy Belgium +1/2 ball @1.8+ as widely available and hedge ASAP.

Either way, Belgian lines looking valuable to me!

Brazil A Update 1/20: Grêmio

I will dedicate a post to each Serie A club until the next round of Brazil A in the 2nd half of July. I will try to post the info on the clubs in a similar fashion so they can be compared. Altough in depth football analysis will be occasionaly posted here, when season resumes and we become overlflooded with Brazil/Latam fixtures I tend to focus in a rather Asian Handicap oriented analysis, with potential picks/guidelines as always, and perhaps retain a little bit of the "in depth" football analysis. This kind of info will always be available upon request.



GREMIO'S FIRST SEMESTER REVIEW: The club has been kind of a victim of the bizarre Brazilian calendar, which is always an object of confusion for foreigners, I might dedicate a post about this mad calendar. Back to Gremio, the team went on vacation time after losing bravely to Real Madrid in the FIFA Club World Cup. The Reserve Team comprised mainly of youngsters started poorly in the regional league of Campeonato Gaucho, and because of an external pressure (press/fans) Gremio had to rush the 1st team back into work before the Physicians and other staff members had planned for them. This early use of the players without a propper pre-season period resulted into many injuries throughout the 1st semester.

Gremio has also rested regulars on a number of occasions, partly due to the problems described above. As a result, they haven't been able to focus entirely in Serie A. The club is also known for having the cups (Libertadores and Brazil Cup) as their historic kind of competition, Gremio's fans simply love their beautiful and rich story of heroic cup games, and there's often pressure to rest regulars in the domestic season aiming this kind of fixture.

In a nutshell, Gremio's ups and downs stem from the mistakes during the months of January and February, but they still were able to lift Recopa Sudamericana and Regional trophies. They consider their first semester very good in terms of results, and they are very motivated as still alive in both cups plus still in the first quarter of the classification table.

TEAM NEWS / RUMOURS DURING WORLD CUP BREAK:

Gremio signed Marinho, a forward that was playing in China, he has a relationship with the coach which dates back to their days in Fluminense nearly a decade ago. IMO the "big transfer" was probably overpriced, but as Gremio received about a couple million EUR more than they expected from Barça to receive Arthur in advance, we can question the cost-benefit ration of the operation but we must highlight how Gremio's financial situation is very organized and a big asset in this moment. They aren't overspending, they are doing much well due to a good plan being executed by President Romildo Bolzan.

I'd say Gremio's WC break hasn't been much turbulent, as we saw in other clubs. The big question mark lies on the future of the coach, which is not a dumb speculation target, IMO the press (especially local in Porto Alegre) has been losing the chance to point finger deeper into the matter. Renato Gaucho is a big contender to be the coach of the Brazilian International Selection in the future, just like Tite has been in the past. His name has grown towards national admiral over the past 24 months, and even if Brazil wins WC, the Brazilian coach hardly ever stays in the job. Gremio's quality is deeply rooted into this coach and this could change radically everything in the club. So far, Gremio's fans can feel that "no news good news" but the matter will be discussed in detail should Renato ever departure.

ASIAN HANDICAP AND GREMIO: RECURRENT TARGETS

Gremio has been particularly keen in a few aspects of the game which are very unusual for Serie A standards. They usually attack when playing away from home as much as they do in their Gremio Arena. This is interesting to keep an eye on, and you could also say that they keep emotionally cool if they suffer early goals. The players also keep focused and fighting until the final whistle without some typical mood issues expected by Brazilian teams exposed to similar pressure levels. In a nutshell, Gremio is the kind of team you might want to buy when down the score in a well observed In-Running AH Scenario.

Moreover, we can generally say they are strong hosts, but I'm not a big fan of huge handicaps so waiting some minutes live could add some value to the "target". I always highlight that Brazil is a league that offers proportionately higher In-Running value than many other leagues, so potential live strategies will often be suggested here.



Happy Trading!

Biggest Injury Risks For Brazil

I have discussed in depth how I believe Marcelo has developed as a leader over the past seasons, and a good example of how ageing seems to have positvely chilled him down is the expressive reduction of red cards in key moments of the game in an abrupt anger burst out.

Altough Felipe Luis is perhaps one of the most qualified immediate subs of Brazil, Real Madrid's LB has developed a few game changer tricks which can be pulled out of his wrists such as the shot outside of the box using the right leg. We have seen beautiful and importante goals like that in the last years in his Real Madrid life. This is where he is more skilled than Felipe. Atleti's LB Felipe is perhaps a keener defensive tool, as he is taller and more used to holding back and protecting his talented team players like Griezmann and Carrasco running through the wings. Altogether, Marcelo's eventual absence is a bigger risk in terms of leadership and team confidence than technically.

On a final note about the left back, it's important to point out that Marcelo isn't as bad defending as many people are "parroting out loud". He is a good LWB and at times, LW, especially when Ronaldo is floating back and forth from the box, but IMO he isn't as good defending precisly when he is out there attacking. When we considering the (rare) moments that Real Madrid is on a completely defensive mode, holding on a few minutes of a key match before the final whistle finally comes, the point is he is a good defender. He isn't the tallest or the strongest, but he can do a decent work protecting spaces and trying to recover the ball.

Neymar is a different case and IMO it's far easier to imagine what his potential absence would look and feel like to the South American team. Altough Coutinho has played an equally importante role in creating chances, Neymar is the symbol of this generation and he is also a "good friend" of the entire group. I don't think that we need many lines to go into the matter but to put it as simple as possible for foreigners: Several Portuguese-speaking sources (journalists, celebrities, friends, former team mater, former coaches, etc...) describe Neymar as a very friendly caracther. The Spanish press often times like to be "overly creative" and by that I mean invent rumours of fights of all kinds. There might have been issues during his Barça time, that's not the point, what I'd like to perhaps let people know outside the Brazilian Portuguese speaking world is that Neymar is a far less toxic person than people at times assume. Actually, Brazilians at times backfeed from the Spanish media's show (which followed him after he moved to France), in the form of rumours that he could return to Spain and other stuff.

Neymar and Marcelo are living different situations: Neymar's foot seems healed, and Marcelo is a big doubt. I'd like to go into the other injury situations

Danilo seemed to be destined for a good world cup, I particularly don't like a few aspects of Daniel Alves as a pseudo leader and IMO his absence could be discussed in terms of effect (neutral, negative, etc). Fagner is MILES BEHIND Danilo in terms of quality and career path. Danilo is more experienced, and was much more fit than his sub. The Right back "line of sucession" has also been discussed in previous posts

Douglas Costa has a good abillity to fill in spaces in the midfield and his passing skills while rushing forward through the middle is something Brazil could particularly benefit from in a moment they are facing diverse challenges comparing to those lived in the "before world cup" scenario. He could be really good and his injury came at a horrible timing. He could have been in the peak of his adaptation to the team by the semis or finals and that simple won't happen, regardless if he comes back to the squad at all or not.

I think Brazil has a big dependence on Coutinho, not only because he makes Neymar better by offering him an option to one-two movements, he is a big threat when shooting and he is in top form. I believe Liverpool's life could have been much different had he remained in UK, mainly because of the momentum involved (That's not exactly breaking news but my point is he ended the season in top form and helped Brazil qualify to the WC's Round of 16)

Also, he wouldn't exactly be stuck in a small club forever, it wasn't his big chance of a lifetime, IMO he was completely drunk by the colours of Barça and if you consider precisely the 2017/2018 club season, it's fair to say it was a stupid choice. In a way, he seems to have arrived "hungry" at WC in a way he might not have been had he lifted UCL trophy (only conjecturing a little here)

I won't discuss the replacement of each position but it's interesting to have a look at what I believe wouldn't hurt them much...

GK spot is crucial in a KO stage and IMO Alisson doesn't look as much solid as you would expect for a Brazilian Selection regular and the beautiful things Taffarel (Brazil's GK coach) always says about him that he is "clealry above" other Brazilian GKs. I find the statement open for debate and many question that in Brazil too. IMO he is no 100m EUR material, not a name to arrive at Real Madrid and become shirt #1 without a fight with Navas. In other words I don't really understand the hype of "potentially the most expensive GK in history". He is a good GK, I'm not saying he's horrible. I think his WC is better than De Gea's for example, but I'm not sure he is the best by far in Brazil and I simply don't believe he could be more expensive than Courtois or Neuer EVEN if you consider their ages. Period.

Willian And Gabriel Jesus are not having the WC everyone expected and their absence wouldn't be a nightmare scenario if you consider a potential formation change, which definitely could be good for Brazil (not a major one, but some...)

CBs seem to be having a decent time. I'm ok with Thiago Silva / Miranda. Never been a fan of Marquinhos as a regular, IMO the CB needs experience and they offer that ALTOUGH I definitely don't like Thiago Silva as a capitan for other reasons. Experience playing their own role doesn't exactly translate as leadership in a broader sense. CB is a kind of position which tends to allow leadership to arise easier as CB demands positioning to be correct from team mates and the way the CB asks for that could help the team to organize itself. Thiago is a great CB, but not a good capitain for reasons you can find in older posts...

Happy Trading!

Brazilian Group Stage Review

Considering all the flaws and potentially problematic points I'd been discussing since the build up for the tournament, IMO Brazilian performance should be rated 5 out of 10.

The near collapse of Argentina and the Group Stage elimination of Germany shouldn't mean that Brazil is an inch better than their true display demonstrated.

POSITIVE POINTS - Neymar seems fit and able to rush through the left as well as contributing to assist team mates when possible. Coutinho looks very good through the middle and seeing him well adapted to Neymar's movements is a positive sign considering that IMO qualification of Conmebol wasn't a good test or a good point of comparison.

The team seems to be improving slowly their emotional strenght, in the sense that they looked far more "frozen" after seeing Switzerland scoring in Match 1  than during their worst moment of their match against Serbia. IMO it's still a point where they could be better, but them seem to be building up in a way.

NEGATIVE POINTS - Gabriel Jesus is not contributing as an ST, Brazil has faced moments when they had the adersaries at their defensive field, up to 9-10 players of the adv team at their own box and in this moment there's nothing you can extract from having 3 wingers like Neymar, Willian and Jesus. Brazil lacks a tall striker with good team chemistry. Firmino could have been tested and given the position but we simply see Willian often crossing to Jesus and that's kind of stupid considering his height.

I believe, however, that Brazil has it's major weakness when they need to defend with many players at their box, the "middle of the middle", i.e. Casemiro and Paulinho seem to be just not enough when you have the entire enemy midfield pressuring you as they are down the score. Brazil was undergoing a very tough moment when they scored today against Serbia, the goal seemed to shift things their way just when they needed it the most. Tite seems unable to make the right substitution at the right time. Usually it's coming 10-20 minutes later than ideal time and that is a problem.

FINAL GROUP STAGE IMPRESSIONS

Brazil has it's biggest assets upfront and in the attacking midfield, and they seem slightly fragile when undergoing pressure lasting longer than 2-5 minutes. The team seems particularly nervous when this happens and that could be explained by many factors such as the lack of international experience of Tite, the big number of young names in the team or simply the consequence of an easy qualification in Conmebol not preparing them for hard games.

Historically Brazil gets bigger handicaps than deserved which often result in good In-Running opportunities as well as structured hedge operations. I will probably write something about the Brazilian lines and potential good strategies for the match against Mexico.

BRAZILIAN SERIE A - ASIAN HANDICAP FULL GUIDE 

This product will be released in the upcoming weeks, with a big season-resume preview for rounds 13 to 38 as well as complete Previews and Reviews of the rounds, Copa Libertadores/Sudamerica and Brazil Cup also to be priced in a timely manner.

As discussed in previous posts I'm still thinking about what to do with that and there is room for proposals/partnerships in the coming 6-18 months for sure. More on the matter to come soon. I will post another teaser of how much the Serie A tournament could be shaked by radical changes after WC break, this should come in the coming 24-48 hours.



Happy trading!

Hedge Against BRA and ARG? (WC AH)

Brazil and Argentina have displayed some kinds of similarities in this World Cup. Of course the teams are living very different situations but there is something in common: very tense begin of matches (first half begin).

I suggested in my post about Costa Rica's game against Brazil that buying the line +1.5 could be good to hold for a while. In fact, Brazil only managed to score in the very last minutes of the match, in a performance which proved many today market expectations of my post. Objectively, the bet +1.5 could have been hedged as of HT with great liquidity, when we already had odds for the Brazilian victory that could "cover" the risk already taken and which proved to be profitable.

Argentina has had similar matches in that very sense, and altough the scenario is far more complicated than this, I believe we have to lines to observe and perhaps hedge after a few minutes during first half. Nigeria could perhaps be held even further.

Lines to be observed and seemingly good for hedge strategies

ASIAN HANDICAP LINES

Serbia +1 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle)

Nigeria +1 @1.961 (Pinnacle)

I wouldn't advise any particular target price for hedge in an early/today market basis, IMO the In-Running scenario should be observed carefully and sell it when most convenient.

Argentine scenario seems indeed doomed and lines seemingly too high for many people, I think that there are several other opportunities in markets of lesser depth than AH, such as betfair/matchbook potential profits, but in general I remain kind of cautious and wouldn't exactly advise betting on full time results and holding, my confidence in potential profits from Nigeria bets are anchored in the safety of being able to eject during live scenario.

I'm not saying Nigeria isn't a good bet for traders that won't follow the game live, i'm just pointing out that in a risk/return trade off, IMO hedge for profits in the house of 5-30% looks very meaty and safer comparing to trusting the Nigerians until the final whistle

I might post more about the Brazilian fixture against Serbia depending on the upcoming team news, but if scenario doesn't change radically, this hedge tip is the only true insight I'd like to share so far.



Happy trading!

Brazil Serie A upcoming update

My main league has been Brazilian Serie A for a while, for a number of reasons. Back when I started as a punter/analyst few people were profiting in the league and the big syndicates often had problems to adapt the models to such a fast changing (often chaotic) league.

This post is just to let you know about the big coverage I will disclose for free in the upcoming weeks. As discussed in a previous post I'm ending a partnership of exclusive liquidity (meaning to keep the odds for a few investors) and I will bring to the light of day in a written for a lot of work which was often done via skype coverage of in-running bets as well as early market / today market analysis

Why Brazil A? Good stable team news sources, feeling of a clean environment in terms of fixing, and a good background of 10 years of experience covering it.

Will there Be other Brazilian Leagues? Can't tell atm, but it is a possibility considering potential demands/liquidity.



What content should be expected at LinkedIn and blog format in this update?

Brazilian football is known for changing fast, and this period of over 30 days without national soccer can completely change the prices (in terms of Asian Handicap world)

We saw 3 coaches of important clubs leaving (Botafogo, Fluminense and Corinthians) in the recent times. How will these teams react?

What kind of training did these teams have? What about signings?

We also have the perpective of perhaps seeing the coach of the current Libertadores champions departuring after World Cup.

Back a few years ago the first package of info for season time in Serie A was a "season preview" to be posted 3 days before season time. Considering all the changes to be accounted after these initial 12 rounds, it's fair to say rounds 13 to 38 will be a new competition of 26 rounds.

I will post an analysis on each club of the Brazilian Serie A as well as an Analysis on the scenario for Serie A, Libertadores and Brazil Cup.

This post will be released in the begin of July, probably a week before the next round, the 13th which will happen in July 18th.

That doesn't mean there won't be more content in the mean time about local Brazilian footie, i'm just announcing a huge pack of info researched to be summarized by a professional with many seasons of experience.

Enjoy this content while it's out there for free and contact me if you are interested in keeping all this content for yourself, not sharing odds or liquidity. I will discuss more in depth the plans for commercializing this info the upcoming months, for now the focus is to demonstrate the quality of the work

Brazil VS Costa Rica (AH Preview)

Is Neymar really fit? Who is Fagner? Is what is Brazil's 3rd choice RB able to do today?

What about Brazilian tactics and formation? Is the expected scenario like the one I predicted against Switzerland? Let's have a look at Brazil...

First some info on Brazil then a look at AH scenario... I'll be as much straight to the point as possible as match is missing a few hours to start...

THE RIGHT BACK ISSUE - Fagner is perhaps the 5th best Brazilian RB atm, in the opinion of most of the local press and fans. Fagner is the kind of player in which the coach Tite "trusts" which is usually a phenomenom that jeopardizes national selection coaches in South America. I will write more about it eventually, but the key point about Fagner is he just got back from an injury and he's playing in China which is definitely not a good sign, at least if you consider the kind of fitness presented by Brazilian players working over the when they arrive for Brazlian selection fixtures. A bold move like a shift to 3-5-2 with Marcelo being used as a LW and Willian RW and the consistent CB Geromel would be much better than fielding yet another player coming back from injury. His lack of true international experience is also a factor. I don't really expect a total meltdown the RB but it's definitely a weak point in Brazil's already complicated formation

NEYMAR AND HIS FITNESS: Put simply, he hasn't been playing in top level since the injury. I don't see Brazil having that much space for counter-attacks nor that many chances for him to dribble his way through the box this easily as markets usually expect. He might make a difference but he will have to be very keen when the chance eventually comes. That might go without saying but yes, Brazil depends a lot on Neymar both technically and in terms of confidence. When he is fielded there's more space for other forwards to work the ball or receive it in a dangerous spot.

THE FORMATION: I don't like this 4 forwards formation as explained carefully in my first post about Brazil in this WC which can be found here . That being said, Costa Rica's coach indicated he will focus at the midfield which might be a good idea. I really don't see the Central American side having forwards in a dead zone and they will focus at a potential golden counter-attack. Brazil is doubtlessly more talented in general but IMO Costa Rica is thinking well the tactics for this game.

THE CAPTAIN ISSUE: YET ANOTHER CHAPTER: Thiago Silva had been much criticized back in WC 2014 for crying like a baby when Brazil won against Chile in the PK shoot out, and coach Scolari lifted him from ground. It felt like a total emotional crackdown to the Brazilian fans and much of the press. I tend to agree with that, he never seemed to inspire confidence in his team mates 4 years ago and he was even cut off the Selection for a while by Dunga before Tite took the job and eventually called him back. I simply don't buy the argument that he has chosen by the selection's shrink in WC and IMO he should be excluded from the pathethic captaincy rotation which Tite decided to use after Neymar decided not to be the capitain at least not always the capitain. It's not like he is one of the capitains he simply refused the leader role. It could not have been an issue if decided at once, Pelé himself never was a capitain, but the coach insisting on the matter when he said Neymar should be the capitain but he couldn't talk the player through that sounded be lacked the means to put his software into the forwards mind. The Capitaincyh issue has been polemic for a while, which I could write even more in depth to explain within the context of the Brazilian football/culture, but to this match let's stick to the point that Thiago Silva carries a heavier load of tension simply because of 2014 even. Why not someone like Willian? Experienced, good form...

ASIAN HANDICAP BETTING SCENARIO

I tend to turn up my nose at any big handicap at first glance, simply because big handicaps (usually home factored) are usually losers in the long run in AH, figures estimated in far less than "balance 1/2" as AH lines may suggest to people new to AH trading.

My cautions against big handicaps are especially bolder when it comes to Brazilian football both at international and local level. I have often advised team mate traders to pick fat handicaps of positive sign and sell after a while, but this is not the kind of strategy which can be advised directly for a today market like we have.

My main project with the current articled here at Linkedin are to help informed traders to make good calls. I should at times make direct bet suggestions like I did against Croatia but the product I'm trying to develop over this World Cup and in the upcoming Brazilian Serie A fixtures in July is to Help the punters/traders that pick this info to think themselves with my info and take informed decisions. I was discussing the market of "picks selling" with an experienced friend that led a few big websites in this market and he pointed out this market seems overflooded. I have also heard from another investor that one of the most famous "direct picks mailing list" we have around is hard to be followed because too many ppl receive it and melt odds down.

My main goal during 2018 and 2019 is to make public the workI have been doing for a few private investors which is of information and "pre market research". Often times liquidity comes out of the blue in the In-Running market.

Often times we see a good consistent home team down the score in a lack of luck, and early/today market lines were simply not valuable enough. Sometimes the traders will be able to spot the pressure and catch the value live, but there is a full other range of possibilites if the trader is somehow ready to buy in case a few pre-analyzed potential live scenarios see the light of day.

Considering the above stated, let's look at Brazil VS Costa Rica AH lines

Costa Rica +1.5 @2.12 (Pinnacle) looks really meaty for these "hold a few minutes" strategies. Brazil tends to be very tense during the first 15 minutes and IMO there's room for great profits at calculated risks.

Costa Rica is not a great team but there are a lot of virtues which make me say without any shame I believe they have at lest 35-40% chances of at least grabbing a point here.

IMO considering all the negative factors about Brazil, their victory at 55-60% chance seems very realistic.

We saw some structural issues in their formation against Switzerland, and things like the nervous coach during 2nd half in contrast to his previous activeness during past months suggests tons of tension. I won't estabilish a target minute or line to be bet here, but my "message for keen traders" is very clear: Costa Rica's lines seem meaty atm.

If CR suffers an early goal or even not so early the chances of a meltdown of course raise, and their strategy of holding a point or even focusing on counters is totally destroyed, and that's the reason I wouldn't advise a bet in a line such as Costa Rica +1.5

IMO the most likely profitable scenario here would be buying a big line then hedge after a few minutes to profits in the house of 5-20%

On a final note, the market lines of Costa Rica +1.5 was 2.15 at Pinny back in December 2017 so virtually no shift after the clear displays of problems from Brazil against Switzerland. Keep an eye on the opportunities that arise from this clear market overlook upon Brazilian issues.

BTW Brazil's coach has never been a big fan of attacking too much after he was ahead of score back at his club days in Corinthians and other teams. The toughest tests he faced as Brazil's coach didn't allow him to prepare strategies for matches in which he would be ahead by 1 goal and the team tense + with other discussed previous issues / pressure etc.

Happy trading!

OVER/UNDER MARKET

Usually O/U lines tend to be "pushed" up by adamant handicaps, but IMO the lines of 2.5 seem very realistic right now. If we had sth like 2.75 to 3 under selection at even odds we could explore potential hedging ideas like the ones we did above on CR lines but it doesn't seem the case

Quick Note about Argentina VS Croatia

Croatia +0.25 bet proved to be good

The match developed pretty much as expected until the ridiculous mistake of Caballero, the Argentine side focused at neutralizing Croatia's efficient midfield and the sides had about the same (lack) of chances. First half was pretty much like that, which kind of matches my early market impression of a wrong handicap on Argentina. The suggested bet on Croatia +0.25 @2.12 proved nice, as we had a levelled match which already was paying a good profit and nice chances of a victory which ended up happening. I find it interesting that our current world of punters is much focused in "tips" and people often seem to care about posting detailed reasonings about past losses, I think it's very important to critically review our winning bets too. The levelled match scenario we saw until HT and the infamous goal, was the most likely scenario. Argentina's late meltdown to 3x0 was much beyond that and made little difference to AH bets but could have been profitable to specific markets of less liquidity for those who considered Argentina's signs of problems even bolder than I did myself.

IMO Iceland has great chances of reaching 4 points and a not-so-far-fetched 2x0 win over Nigeria would pratically be the last nail in Argentina's coffin.

WC - Argentina VS Croatia AH Analysis

My main goal atm is following the Brazilian team and preparing the ground to the Brazilian Serie A comeback, but I may write occasionally about the WC in general especially when some opportunities show up like this one...

Argentine football is closely related to Brazilian one we Libertadores is a common ground of play, not to mention the constant presence of Argentine players in Brazilian leagues as well as linguistic proximity between Brazilian Portuguese and Spanish

I still find impressive how much value can be easily spotted by experienced punters and how the market often times fails to realize value when it's very obvious.

I mention this paragraph above because the line Croatia +0.25 @Pinnacle has dropped from 2.43 back in December 2017 to 2.12 right now.

IMO we are still 1/4 ball away from what could be considered a fair price. Argentina +0 @2.15 looks realistic IMO. We have seem the Argentine side struggling for various reasons over the qualification fixtures especially in the last few ones, and the world cup debut against the modest but brave Iceland has only worsened things out.

I see Croatia as a valuable bet here because we have a selection with Modric living his very prime, Mandzukic also living an excellent moment as well as many other good names, Kovacic, Perisic, etc.

I honestly don't understand why the market is settled at this point, Argentine selection has been boiling in the most negative way possible for almost a decade and we still see big handicaps. Maradona days are more than over and altough I definitely agree Argentina had major names to build a fantastic team, it's more than a repeated story to see many shiny names back on their shirts scattered across the pitch and no true team chemistry nor a decent defensive system so far.

The Argentine problems could be discussed more in depth, but the core of the value here IMO is to read the signs that Argentina's mood isn't improving and we are likely to see a nervous display and a tough match at their best.

We had news in Latin America that the Argentine press learned that Messi had been crying over the phone with his mother, and his situation in Argentina's team has been subject of many negative statements in the past including a "bursting out retirement" from national team.

Also, the excessive number of changes in their last training session is a bad sign IMO. Latin American coaches have this tendency of excessive changes when the situation is really bad and usually it worsens the situation.

Sampaoli's spell at Argentina looked promissing after his great job with Chile, but so far we had much fuel to the hot Argentine press's delight such as not calling Tevez nor Icardi, as well as many others.

Right now we have fresh news of Messi not well emotionally and too many changes in their formation

The only question left IMO is...

Why Croatia +0.25? Why not half a ball?

While I consider the draw chances underestimated by the big Argentine handicaps around markets, IMO the chances of a Croatian victory are also underestimated.

IMO Croatia +0.5@1.83 also looks great, but the full victory of Croatia at odds of 2.12 are worthy the bet, and if a draw happens we still have a decent 1.56 winning odd.



BETTING SCENARIO - TODAY AND LIVE MARKETS

IMO If you buy Croatia either half ball or 1/4 and hold for a while it could already prove worthy as a tense match start is more than a possible scenario. Today market bets as suggested on Croatia seem very meaty.

Finally, the target lines as of now

Croatia +0.25 @1.93+

Croatia +0.5@1.77+

Betting Scenario for Brazil in the World Cup

As always, IMO it's possible to benefit from huge handicaps against Brazil, buying the smaller side and holding for a few minutes then hedging, or waiting until BR is behind in the score and buy them in a more comfortable situation. All the issues that were carefully discussed over the last post were confirmed in their first fixture today. Keep an eye on my posts and learn more about the deepest details of the Brazilian team in this World Cup within Asian Handicap world and beyond

Brazil VS Switzerland Match Review

The match has divided in 2 parts, the first one we had Brazil attacking a lot and having the possession of the ball, which allowed them to play in a very similar way comparing to their through WC qualification. However, after the beautiful long shot of Coutinho, Brazil behaved in a much different way.

This situation during 1x0 time until FT was very important to illustrate a lot of what I had predicted in my post before kick off.

Brazil simply had few opportunities to practice this kind of moment when you need to attack and focus on using the spaces your adversary is going to give you naturally. The Swiss side however was every cool and didn't open up in a dangerous way. I think some of the criticism I had about the formation was very easy to be spotted during this match.

The striker situation for instance. In a given moment, Willian crossed to the box like there was someone tall enough to score a header goal. No, there wasn't.

Altough we witnessed the qualities of the 4 fast guys WHEN they had the ball (Neymar, Coutinho, Willian, Gabriel Jesus) some of the virtues Brazil will forcedly need to progress during WC were nearly absent, such as the ability to attack and keep balance in the wings.

The number of times we saw Shaqiri progress completely unmarked during second half is something that can cause major problems against more solid sides, or even Shaqiri himself back in his prime years.

FINAL SCORE ANALYSIS

Brazil was probably better when attacking than the Swiss side, but my analysis is focusing at spotting virtues and potential flaws for the big picture and bigger matches to come. 1x1 was probably slightly unfair but it's the kind of result that injects a huge dose of sobriety which Brazil might benefit from in the coming rounds.

Introduction Post

What to expect from Brazil in their first World Cup after the tragic 7x1 loss at home in 2014?



Most of the betting world is located in Europe. So if you consider what most of European punters see as the Brazilian assets, Brazil could be compared in a way to France: A national team composed of many new names that emerged in the past few seasons and changed the squad in a good way.

It's no news that Coutinho, Gabriel Jesus, Alisson and Danilo are interesting new regulars. Marcelo is perhaps at the best moment of his career and Neymar is a far more experienced player than in 2014.

Did Brazil improve THAT much? What to expect from Brazil in Russia?

It's very easy to see the qualities of Brazil right now, after many easier matches over the past 12-18 months. But what about the big moment? I tried to explore the flaws of Brazil which tend to be harder to spot due to the many peculiarities of Latin American and Brazilian footie...

The natural handicap that many don't see (Conmebol selections)

Brazil and Argentina have been for long decades the teams considered as favorites to win WC outside the UEFA universe. When WC starts and markets try to price the teams, some aspects of the Conmebol members are often overlooked and usually explain unexpected flaws in the teams of Brazil and Argentina. Being based in Brazil and observing the local media which affects a lot the families of players and often times their own expectations and focus to the tournament, it's interesting to see how European investors might not see what I call the "natural handicap". Let's have a look at it....

The 4 year cycle curse

The UEFA selections have a chance to change faster than Conmebol ones, simply because there's a major tournament every 2 years and "heavy" qualification fixtures force them to keep a solid squad over the 4 years. We have had a case in the decade of 2000's where many Brazilian stars politely asked the national coach to be absent from Copa America, this was a clear display of how Copa America simply isn't taken nearly as serious as EURO. We tend to see more tension within Conmebol selections during the last 2 years of the cycle, this applies to media, fans, players and FA's. They only truly care about the selections when the end of the Qualifying is approaching and there are a few points missing.

The natural consequence of this situation is that Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay arrive much more tense in the World Cup's than European sides. The big "moment" is there and the chance to play well is 4 years apart from the next one, mistakes are often hard to be erased.

The 7x1 is still echoing much louder than people in Europe can imagine, simply because Brazil  feels like they haven't had yet a true chance to "pay back". 

On a side note, Argentina just had a poor debut against Iceland, and the cycle issue seems to affect them too. They don't have a 7x1 burden to be lifted but they live their own tensions in a boiling way, there has been a long lasting feeling during the entire career of Messi that he only cares about Barcelona and he is a weak leader, alongside with the fact that Argentina doesn't win a trophy since the 90's.

Conmebol sides face what I call a natural handicap in many ways, and this seems to have become even worse over the past 20 years


The Problem with Team Chemistry
Selections naturally play together much lesser often than clubs, that's not news, but the point is we tend to see Brazil, Argentina and even Uruguay having their players scattered around many more clubs than Spain or Germany. If you consider the talent pool and the results of these 3 sides since 2006 we can easily see how they benefit from playing on the same league (mostly)

Neuer, Kimmich, Hummels,  Boateng and Müller play together no matter what shirt they wear... Götze, Schürrle, Reus face them often and they can keep in closer contact with their national fellows.

In Spain, altough we saw sometimes Catalonya and Spain issues as well as Barça/Madrid rivalry affect La Roja especially during Mourinho's spell in Madrid, we have most of the players split between the big 2 of Spain.

Team chemistry doesn't show up out of thin air, when you are in a World Cup very tense, at times you can predict where your fellows are in the pitch a fraction of a second before your adversaries simply because you are adapted to each other. This issue applies fully to Conmebol sides and even some European ones, buy if you consider the favorites of World Cup to be Germany, Brazil, Spain, France or Argentina, clealry the South American sides have a "natural handicap" in this sense.

The 4 year cycle is an issue which is particularly venomous when the "scattered players" issue is added to the sum

Brazilian Achiles heel candidates: formation problems and lack of experience

The 4 year cycle seems to be affecting new regulars like Alisson and Gabriel Jesus. I didn't like much their recent interviews and IMO they aren't really ready for the WC. Danilo and Jesus are very good atm but they have tons of experienced team mates at Man City as well as an experienced coach who speaks a language very close to their mother tongue.

Alisson may have been well at Roma, but some issues indicate he's nervous as the face skin disease speculation. His stint at the selection was all about WC qualification, underestimated Copa America and friendlies. There hasn't been a true test yet. You definitely can't compare him to Lloris, Neuer or even De Gea who didn't start very well this WC. GK matters a lot in a World Cup, and often times they are the difference between progressing and being KO'd in a KO stage.

Formation Issues.... I'm really not a fan of this kind of formation Brazil uses. Tite is a coach who relied on a tall striker his entire career. Brazilian football has a tradition of using a tactic of crossing many balls into the box when things are going bad in the last minutes. The total lack of this resource is not a good structural move IMO. Diego Costa could have been this man but that's another story...

The use of only 2 defensive man in the midfield and many attacking names like Jesus, Coutinho Neymar and Willian might be succesful within Group stage or easier KO matches, but the fact is that it's a VERY SIMILAR FORMATION COMPARING TO DOOMSDAY 7X1 STARTING XI.

I will use the GS matches to look deeper into the matter and explain in a rather clear way, but I see a lack of balance in their midfield, there are way too many players of good pace but this is the kind of formation that depends on having the ball. Brazil has been all about matches where they had to attack and were conceded the ball possession. World Cup is not about that when it comes to harder matches. IMO Tite never really had the chance to develop a balanced formation, his only loss so far was against Argentina and even if you blame his lack of regulars at the time, the main idea here is Brazil doesn't seem quite ready to face sides that retain the ball like spain or have a heavy defensive power in the midfield like Germany.

IMO this is quite obvious to any experienced observer, but the markets react based on far more than only sports aspects so we can definitely keep an eye on opportunities to make profit

There's also the capitain choice issue, which I will write about in a separate post...


What I expect from Brazil and what I predict to them and WC
My first days as a punter have been almost 10 years ago, and as Asian Handicap is all about MATCHES not tournaments, I tend to be lesser interested in predicting favorites to tournaments than fixtures.

I consider that Brazil is overestimated, as they often are, because of their glorious past and the fact that we have again many attacking midfielders and forwards of world class. I still don't see a seasoned team with a balanced formation.

Germany's team chemistry, the emotional experience and the ability to form a midfield which attacks and defends together is something that can break Brazil once again, in the very same fahion 7x1 did.

Their recent friendly had a Germany without key players (rested) as well as a total lack of true commitment. To German's, friendlies are friendlies. Brazilians simply care way too much about them just because it's their only chance to "communicate" to European football during the 4 year cycle...

I see Germany more solid than Brazil and would consider them favorites in a KO stage.

Spain's debut also demonstrated many virtues and after much time we can see Diego Costa becoming the much needed striker they have been needing since the decay of Torres. I guess we tend to see Costa the factor that can help them become even more balanced. We have many experienced guys in this team.

I guess Brazil is kind of ahead of Argentina in terms of chances, I guess they have some good chances like France, they seem slightly more solid than Portugal, depending a LOT on the situation of CR7, let's say Brazil is more of a team w/o Neymar than Portugal without Cristiano.

Germany and Spain feel a step ahead Brazil, France and Portugal. Argentina (as they have been for a while) had many big names but lacks the "team". Only good soldiers not a good army. In this order, I guess there are the faves, GER, SPA, BRA, FRA, POR, CRO, ARG.

Croatia seems to be in a good situation, I like how Modric is being their leader as well as we have lots of experienced guys like Mandz and Rakitic. Maybe Croatia coach be the surprise and even pose a major threat to Argentina. I may post a match preview about this one are Latin american footie is also of my interest

Potential betting tips for Brazil (especially during group stage)
This blog will be more about informing and feeding betting decisions than direct picks but they may appear during World Cup, for Brazil and other matches.

There's a fine line between team news and analysis and sending a direct tip or a betting target.

I have been working in this profession for a few years new, altough it's a "role" that isn't a standard in the syndicate scene, it proved to be where I'm the most useful. I want to be a "direct tipster" in the coming months especially in Brazil Serie A and maybe other projects, but this blog's main goal remains to be a full display of the depth of my writings and what kind of insight it can bring to a good trader/tipster. I hope to estabilish new business partnerships that can vary from closing the blog and writing privately to joining a syndicate as a punter once again.

Let's see how the tides roll over the upcoming months.

See you at the next post about Brazil's captaincy issues since 2014

Brazilian Football Betting Analysis

Welcome to my blog. My name is Lucas Mondelo and I have been a Football Writer / Professional Betting Analyst since 2008. The following lines will explain a little about the blog, as well as a little bit about my background experience within the betting industry. I have displayed this as a little Q&A to make info more straight to the point.

What content will be posted in this page?

I will write about Brazilian football, with a focus at Serie A, aiming sports betting insights and profits in the long run.  I will also write more in depth about tactical and cultural aspects of the game in Brazil and the world, so to summarize, you'll find sports betting analysis, predictions as well as football reading material.

What kind of reader will find it useful?
Professional sports betting individuals, syndicates, as well as amateur ones or simply people insterested in learning more about Brazilian football as well as sports betting in general, or maybe just look at Brazilian soccer with the eyes of the betting world


How long will this content be posted for free? 
I can't predict that. I had been involved with projects that didn't allow me to write publicly about Brazilian football during very long periods of time since 2008. The future of the blog will depend on what kind of partners I will work with during this ongoing season and the next one. The main idea here is to give potential future costumers/partners/investors the chance to see me in action round after round with previews and reviews wihout having to worry about liquidity. (In the sense that my current partners will receive the info before the blog but I will be open for discussing deals such as exclusive use of my predictions)

What's the goal of the blog?
I have been involved in several different roles within the betting world since 2008, but often times the process of building the picks and helping traders from companies I worked with was a verbal only discussion or a skype conference, and much of the "betting decision" was hard to be demonstrated to potential future partners. My goal here is to make a full demonstration of my skills as a Betting Analyst, as a Punter, and as a football writer. I will make a post soon explaining my experience with these 3 specific roles.

You can contact me via e-mail at lucasmondelo@gmail.com

Later today, some lines about the Brazilian International selection