My main goal atm is following the Brazilian team and preparing the ground to the Brazilian Serie A comeback, but I may write occasionally about the WC in general especially when some opportunities show up like this one...
Argentine football is closely related to Brazilian one we Libertadores is a common ground of play, not to mention the constant presence of Argentine players in Brazilian leagues as well as linguistic proximity between Brazilian Portuguese and Spanish
I still find impressive how much value can be easily spotted by experienced punters and how the market often times fails to realize value when it's very obvious.
I mention this paragraph above because the line Croatia +0.25 @Pinnacle has dropped from 2.43 back in December 2017 to 2.12 right now.
IMO we are still 1/4 ball away from what could be considered a fair price. Argentina +0 @2.15 looks realistic IMO. We have seem the Argentine side struggling for various reasons over the qualification fixtures especially in the last few ones, and the world cup debut against the modest but brave Iceland has only worsened things out.
I see Croatia as a valuable bet here because we have a selection with Modric living his very prime, Mandzukic also living an excellent moment as well as many other good names, Kovacic, Perisic, etc.
I honestly don't understand why the market is settled at this point, Argentine selection has been boiling in the most negative way possible for almost a decade and we still see big handicaps. Maradona days are more than over and altough I definitely agree Argentina had major names to build a fantastic team, it's more than a repeated story to see many shiny names back on their shirts scattered across the pitch and no true team chemistry nor a decent defensive system so far.
The Argentine problems could be discussed more in depth, but the core of the value here IMO is to read the signs that Argentina's mood isn't improving and we are likely to see a nervous display and a tough match at their best.
We had news in Latin America that the Argentine press learned that Messi had been crying over the phone with his mother, and his situation in Argentina's team has been subject of many negative statements in the past including a "bursting out retirement" from national team.
Also, the excessive number of changes in their last training session is a bad sign IMO. Latin American coaches have this tendency of excessive changes when the situation is really bad and usually it worsens the situation.
Sampaoli's spell at Argentina looked promissing after his great job with Chile, but so far we had much fuel to the hot Argentine press's delight such as not calling Tevez nor Icardi, as well as many others.
Right now we have fresh news of Messi not well emotionally and too many changes in their formation
The only question left IMO is...
Why Croatia +0.25? Why not half a ball?
While I consider the draw chances underestimated by the big Argentine handicaps around markets, IMO the chances of a Croatian victory are also underestimated.
IMO Croatia +0.5@1.83 also looks great, but the full victory of Croatia at odds of 2.12 are worthy the bet, and if a draw happens we still have a decent 1.56 winning odd.
BETTING SCENARIO - TODAY AND LIVE MARKETS
IMO If you buy Croatia either half ball or 1/4 and hold for a while it could already prove worthy as a tense match start is more than a possible scenario. Today market bets as suggested on Croatia seem very meaty.
Finally, the target lines as of now
Croatia +0.25 @1.93+
Croatia +0.5@1.77+
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