Most of the betting world is located in Europe. So if you consider what most of European punters see as the Brazilian assets, Brazil could be compared in a way to France: A national team composed of many new names that emerged in the past few seasons and changed the squad in a good way.
It's no news that Coutinho, Gabriel Jesus, Alisson and Danilo are interesting new regulars. Marcelo is perhaps at the best moment of his career and Neymar is a far more experienced player than in 2014.
Did Brazil improve THAT much? What to expect from Brazil in Russia?
It's very easy to see the qualities of Brazil right now, after many easier matches over the past 12-18 months. But what about the big moment? I tried to explore the flaws of Brazil which tend to be harder to spot due to the many peculiarities of Latin American and Brazilian footie...
The natural handicap that many don't see (Conmebol selections)
Brazil and Argentina have been for long decades the teams considered as favorites to win WC outside the UEFA universe. When WC starts and markets try to price the teams, some aspects of the Conmebol members are often overlooked and usually explain unexpected flaws in the teams of Brazil and Argentina. Being based in Brazil and observing the local media which affects a lot the families of players and often times their own expectations and focus to the tournament, it's interesting to see how European investors might not see what I call the "natural handicap". Let's have a look at it....
The 4 year cycle curse
The UEFA selections have a chance to change faster than Conmebol ones, simply because there's a major tournament every 2 years and "heavy" qualification fixtures force them to keep a solid squad over the 4 years. We have had a case in the decade of 2000's where many Brazilian stars politely asked the national coach to be absent from Copa America, this was a clear display of how Copa America simply isn't taken nearly as serious as EURO. We tend to see more tension within Conmebol selections during the last 2 years of the cycle, this applies to media, fans, players and FA's. They only truly care about the selections when the end of the Qualifying is approaching and there are a few points missing.
The natural consequence of this situation is that Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay arrive much more tense in the World Cup's than European sides. The big "moment" is there and the chance to play well is 4 years apart from the next one, mistakes are often hard to be erased.
The 7x1 is still echoing much louder than people in Europe can imagine, simply because Brazil feels like they haven't had yet a true chance to "pay back".
On a side note, Argentina just had a poor debut against Iceland, and the cycle issue seems to affect them too. They don't have a 7x1 burden to be lifted but they live their own tensions in a boiling way, there has been a long lasting feeling during the entire career of Messi that he only cares about Barcelona and he is a weak leader, alongside with the fact that Argentina doesn't win a trophy since the 90's.
Conmebol sides face what I call a natural handicap in many ways, and this seems to have become even worse over the past 20 years
The Problem with Team Chemistry
Selections naturally play together much lesser often than clubs, that's not news, but the point is we tend to see Brazil, Argentina and even Uruguay having their players scattered around many more clubs than Spain or Germany. If you consider the talent pool and the results of these 3 sides since 2006 we can easily see how they benefit from playing on the same league (mostly)
Neuer, Kimmich, Hummels, Boateng and Müller play together no matter what shirt they wear... Götze, Schürrle, Reus face them often and they can keep in closer contact with their national fellows.
In Spain, altough we saw sometimes Catalonya and Spain issues as well as Barça/Madrid rivalry affect La Roja especially during Mourinho's spell in Madrid, we have most of the players split between the big 2 of Spain.
Team chemistry doesn't show up out of thin air, when you are in a World Cup very tense, at times you can predict where your fellows are in the pitch a fraction of a second before your adversaries simply because you are adapted to each other. This issue applies fully to Conmebol sides and even some European ones, buy if you consider the favorites of World Cup to be Germany, Brazil, Spain, France or Argentina, clealry the South American sides have a "natural handicap" in this sense.
The 4 year cycle is an issue which is particularly venomous when the "scattered players" issue is added to the sum
Brazilian Achiles heel candidates: formation problems and lack of experience
The 4 year cycle seems to be affecting new regulars like Alisson and Gabriel Jesus. I didn't like much their recent interviews and IMO they aren't really ready for the WC. Danilo and Jesus are very good atm but they have tons of experienced team mates at Man City as well as an experienced coach who speaks a language very close to their mother tongue.
Alisson may have been well at Roma, but some issues indicate he's nervous as the face skin disease speculation. His stint at the selection was all about WC qualification, underestimated Copa America and friendlies. There hasn't been a true test yet. You definitely can't compare him to Lloris, Neuer or even De Gea who didn't start very well this WC. GK matters a lot in a World Cup, and often times they are the difference between progressing and being KO'd in a KO stage.
Formation Issues.... I'm really not a fan of this kind of formation Brazil uses. Tite is a coach who relied on a tall striker his entire career. Brazilian football has a tradition of using a tactic of crossing many balls into the box when things are going bad in the last minutes. The total lack of this resource is not a good structural move IMO. Diego Costa could have been this man but that's another story...
The use of only 2 defensive man in the midfield and many attacking names like Jesus, Coutinho Neymar and Willian might be succesful within Group stage or easier KO matches, but the fact is that it's a VERY SIMILAR FORMATION COMPARING TO DOOMSDAY 7X1 STARTING XI.
I will use the GS matches to look deeper into the matter and explain in a rather clear way, but I see a lack of balance in their midfield, there are way too many players of good pace but this is the kind of formation that depends on having the ball. Brazil has been all about matches where they had to attack and were conceded the ball possession. World Cup is not about that when it comes to harder matches. IMO Tite never really had the chance to develop a balanced formation, his only loss so far was against Argentina and even if you blame his lack of regulars at the time, the main idea here is Brazil doesn't seem quite ready to face sides that retain the ball like spain or have a heavy defensive power in the midfield like Germany.
IMO this is quite obvious to any experienced observer, but the markets react based on far more than only sports aspects so we can definitely keep an eye on opportunities to make profit
There's also the capitain choice issue, which I will write about in a separate post...
What I expect from Brazil and what I predict to them and WC
My first days as a punter have been almost 10 years ago, and as Asian Handicap is all about MATCHES not tournaments, I tend to be lesser interested in predicting favorites to tournaments than fixtures.
I consider that Brazil is overestimated, as they often are, because of their glorious past and the fact that we have again many attacking midfielders and forwards of world class. I still don't see a seasoned team with a balanced formation.
Germany's team chemistry, the emotional experience and the ability to form a midfield which attacks and defends together is something that can break Brazil once again, in the very same fahion 7x1 did.
Their recent friendly had a Germany without key players (rested) as well as a total lack of true commitment. To German's, friendlies are friendlies. Brazilians simply care way too much about them just because it's their only chance to "communicate" to European football during the 4 year cycle...
I see Germany more solid than Brazil and would consider them favorites in a KO stage.
Spain's debut also demonstrated many virtues and after much time we can see Diego Costa becoming the much needed striker they have been needing since the decay of Torres. I guess we tend to see Costa the factor that can help them become even more balanced. We have many experienced guys in this team.
I guess Brazil is kind of ahead of Argentina in terms of chances, I guess they have some good chances like France, they seem slightly more solid than Portugal, depending a LOT on the situation of CR7, let's say Brazil is more of a team w/o Neymar than Portugal without Cristiano.
Germany and Spain feel a step ahead Brazil, France and Portugal. Argentina (as they have been for a while) had many big names but lacks the "team". Only good soldiers not a good army. In this order, I guess there are the faves, GER, SPA, BRA, FRA, POR, CRO, ARG.
Croatia seems to be in a good situation, I like how Modric is being their leader as well as we have lots of experienced guys like Mandz and Rakitic. Maybe Croatia coach be the surprise and even pose a major threat to Argentina. I may post a match preview about this one are Latin american footie is also of my interest
Potential betting tips for Brazil (especially during group stage)
This blog will be more about informing and feeding betting decisions than direct picks but they may appear during World Cup, for Brazil and other matches.
There's a fine line between team news and analysis and sending a direct tip or a betting target.
I have been working in this profession for a few years new, altough it's a "role" that isn't a standard in the syndicate scene, it proved to be where I'm the most useful. I want to be a "direct tipster" in the coming months especially in Brazil Serie A and maybe other projects, but this blog's main goal remains to be a full display of the depth of my writings and what kind of insight it can bring to a good trader/tipster. I hope to estabilish new business partnerships that can vary from closing the blog and writing privately to joining a syndicate as a punter once again.
Let's see how the tides roll over the upcoming months.
See you at the next post about Brazil's captaincy issues since 2014
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