Brazil VS Costa Rica (AH Preview)

Is Neymar really fit? Who is Fagner? Is what is Brazil's 3rd choice RB able to do today?

What about Brazilian tactics and formation? Is the expected scenario like the one I predicted against Switzerland? Let's have a look at Brazil...

First some info on Brazil then a look at AH scenario... I'll be as much straight to the point as possible as match is missing a few hours to start...

THE RIGHT BACK ISSUE - Fagner is perhaps the 5th best Brazilian RB atm, in the opinion of most of the local press and fans. Fagner is the kind of player in which the coach Tite "trusts" which is usually a phenomenom that jeopardizes national selection coaches in South America. I will write more about it eventually, but the key point about Fagner is he just got back from an injury and he's playing in China which is definitely not a good sign, at least if you consider the kind of fitness presented by Brazilian players working over the when they arrive for Brazlian selection fixtures. A bold move like a shift to 3-5-2 with Marcelo being used as a LW and Willian RW and the consistent CB Geromel would be much better than fielding yet another player coming back from injury. His lack of true international experience is also a factor. I don't really expect a total meltdown the RB but it's definitely a weak point in Brazil's already complicated formation

NEYMAR AND HIS FITNESS: Put simply, he hasn't been playing in top level since the injury. I don't see Brazil having that much space for counter-attacks nor that many chances for him to dribble his way through the box this easily as markets usually expect. He might make a difference but he will have to be very keen when the chance eventually comes. That might go without saying but yes, Brazil depends a lot on Neymar both technically and in terms of confidence. When he is fielded there's more space for other forwards to work the ball or receive it in a dangerous spot.

THE FORMATION: I don't like this 4 forwards formation as explained carefully in my first post about Brazil in this WC which can be found here . That being said, Costa Rica's coach indicated he will focus at the midfield which might be a good idea. I really don't see the Central American side having forwards in a dead zone and they will focus at a potential golden counter-attack. Brazil is doubtlessly more talented in general but IMO Costa Rica is thinking well the tactics for this game.

THE CAPTAIN ISSUE: YET ANOTHER CHAPTER: Thiago Silva had been much criticized back in WC 2014 for crying like a baby when Brazil won against Chile in the PK shoot out, and coach Scolari lifted him from ground. It felt like a total emotional crackdown to the Brazilian fans and much of the press. I tend to agree with that, he never seemed to inspire confidence in his team mates 4 years ago and he was even cut off the Selection for a while by Dunga before Tite took the job and eventually called him back. I simply don't buy the argument that he has chosen by the selection's shrink in WC and IMO he should be excluded from the pathethic captaincy rotation which Tite decided to use after Neymar decided not to be the capitain at least not always the capitain. It's not like he is one of the capitains he simply refused the leader role. It could not have been an issue if decided at once, Pelé himself never was a capitain, but the coach insisting on the matter when he said Neymar should be the capitain but he couldn't talk the player through that sounded be lacked the means to put his software into the forwards mind. The Capitaincyh issue has been polemic for a while, which I could write even more in depth to explain within the context of the Brazilian football/culture, but to this match let's stick to the point that Thiago Silva carries a heavier load of tension simply because of 2014 even. Why not someone like Willian? Experienced, good form...

ASIAN HANDICAP BETTING SCENARIO

I tend to turn up my nose at any big handicap at first glance, simply because big handicaps (usually home factored) are usually losers in the long run in AH, figures estimated in far less than "balance 1/2" as AH lines may suggest to people new to AH trading.

My cautions against big handicaps are especially bolder when it comes to Brazilian football both at international and local level. I have often advised team mate traders to pick fat handicaps of positive sign and sell after a while, but this is not the kind of strategy which can be advised directly for a today market like we have.

My main project with the current articled here at Linkedin are to help informed traders to make good calls. I should at times make direct bet suggestions like I did against Croatia but the product I'm trying to develop over this World Cup and in the upcoming Brazilian Serie A fixtures in July is to Help the punters/traders that pick this info to think themselves with my info and take informed decisions. I was discussing the market of "picks selling" with an experienced friend that led a few big websites in this market and he pointed out this market seems overflooded. I have also heard from another investor that one of the most famous "direct picks mailing list" we have around is hard to be followed because too many ppl receive it and melt odds down.

My main goal during 2018 and 2019 is to make public the workI have been doing for a few private investors which is of information and "pre market research". Often times liquidity comes out of the blue in the In-Running market.

Often times we see a good consistent home team down the score in a lack of luck, and early/today market lines were simply not valuable enough. Sometimes the traders will be able to spot the pressure and catch the value live, but there is a full other range of possibilites if the trader is somehow ready to buy in case a few pre-analyzed potential live scenarios see the light of day.

Considering the above stated, let's look at Brazil VS Costa Rica AH lines

Costa Rica +1.5 @2.12 (Pinnacle) looks really meaty for these "hold a few minutes" strategies. Brazil tends to be very tense during the first 15 minutes and IMO there's room for great profits at calculated risks.

Costa Rica is not a great team but there are a lot of virtues which make me say without any shame I believe they have at lest 35-40% chances of at least grabbing a point here.

IMO considering all the negative factors about Brazil, their victory at 55-60% chance seems very realistic.

We saw some structural issues in their formation against Switzerland, and things like the nervous coach during 2nd half in contrast to his previous activeness during past months suggests tons of tension. I won't estabilish a target minute or line to be bet here, but my "message for keen traders" is very clear: Costa Rica's lines seem meaty atm.

If CR suffers an early goal or even not so early the chances of a meltdown of course raise, and their strategy of holding a point or even focusing on counters is totally destroyed, and that's the reason I wouldn't advise a bet in a line such as Costa Rica +1.5

IMO the most likely profitable scenario here would be buying a big line then hedge after a few minutes to profits in the house of 5-20%

On a final note, the market lines of Costa Rica +1.5 was 2.15 at Pinny back in December 2017 so virtually no shift after the clear displays of problems from Brazil against Switzerland. Keep an eye on the opportunities that arise from this clear market overlook upon Brazilian issues.

BTW Brazil's coach has never been a big fan of attacking too much after he was ahead of score back at his club days in Corinthians and other teams. The toughest tests he faced as Brazil's coach didn't allow him to prepare strategies for matches in which he would be ahead by 1 goal and the team tense + with other discussed previous issues / pressure etc.

Happy trading!

OVER/UNDER MARKET

Usually O/U lines tend to be "pushed" up by adamant handicaps, but IMO the lines of 2.5 seem very realistic right now. If we had sth like 2.75 to 3 under selection at even odds we could explore potential hedging ideas like the ones we did above on CR lines but it doesn't seem the case

Quick Note about Argentina VS Croatia

Croatia +0.25 bet proved to be good

The match developed pretty much as expected until the ridiculous mistake of Caballero, the Argentine side focused at neutralizing Croatia's efficient midfield and the sides had about the same (lack) of chances. First half was pretty much like that, which kind of matches my early market impression of a wrong handicap on Argentina. The suggested bet on Croatia +0.25 @2.12 proved nice, as we had a levelled match which already was paying a good profit and nice chances of a victory which ended up happening. I find it interesting that our current world of punters is much focused in "tips" and people often seem to care about posting detailed reasonings about past losses, I think it's very important to critically review our winning bets too. The levelled match scenario we saw until HT and the infamous goal, was the most likely scenario. Argentina's late meltdown to 3x0 was much beyond that and made little difference to AH bets but could have been profitable to specific markets of less liquidity for those who considered Argentina's signs of problems even bolder than I did myself.

IMO Iceland has great chances of reaching 4 points and a not-so-far-fetched 2x0 win over Nigeria would pratically be the last nail in Argentina's coffin.