Hedge Against BRA and ARG? (WC AH)

Brazil and Argentina have displayed some kinds of similarities in this World Cup. Of course the teams are living very different situations but there is something in common: very tense begin of matches (first half begin).

I suggested in my post about Costa Rica's game against Brazil that buying the line +1.5 could be good to hold for a while. In fact, Brazil only managed to score in the very last minutes of the match, in a performance which proved many today market expectations of my post. Objectively, the bet +1.5 could have been hedged as of HT with great liquidity, when we already had odds for the Brazilian victory that could "cover" the risk already taken and which proved to be profitable.

Argentina has had similar matches in that very sense, and altough the scenario is far more complicated than this, I believe we have to lines to observe and perhaps hedge after a few minutes during first half. Nigeria could perhaps be held even further.

Lines to be observed and seemingly good for hedge strategies

ASIAN HANDICAP LINES

Serbia +1 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle)

Nigeria +1 @1.961 (Pinnacle)

I wouldn't advise any particular target price for hedge in an early/today market basis, IMO the In-Running scenario should be observed carefully and sell it when most convenient.

Argentine scenario seems indeed doomed and lines seemingly too high for many people, I think that there are several other opportunities in markets of lesser depth than AH, such as betfair/matchbook potential profits, but in general I remain kind of cautious and wouldn't exactly advise betting on full time results and holding, my confidence in potential profits from Nigeria bets are anchored in the safety of being able to eject during live scenario.

I'm not saying Nigeria isn't a good bet for traders that won't follow the game live, i'm just pointing out that in a risk/return trade off, IMO hedge for profits in the house of 5-30% looks very meaty and safer comparing to trusting the Nigerians until the final whistle

I might post more about the Brazilian fixture against Serbia depending on the upcoming team news, but if scenario doesn't change radically, this hedge tip is the only true insight I'd like to share so far.



Happy trading!