Gremio: The hosts have proved to be good at their domains on several occasions during past seasons and that's not exactly breaking news atm, the good and perhaps not-much-noticed value of Gremio lies upon the fact the team usually remains cold e.g. when they suffer early goals at home. The hosts fans are very demanding and usually booing during 1st half isn't a rare thing if they feel the side is underperfoming. In sum, strong hosts with a strong predicted line-up. I don't worry much about the news that Kanneman CB has caught a cold and didn't train during the week because the 1st choice sub CB Bressan seems very good atm, not world class like Kanneman but surely good enough to form a strong cb duo with International Geromel.
Atlético MG: We are yet to see how the selling of Roger Guedes ATT will affect their capacity of "having teeth to bite" upfront, but I still must highlight they had a very solid first semester and their 2nd post is definitely not undeserved.
Asian Handicap Scenario: My fair lines for Gremio's victory lie in the house of 55 to 60%, meaning that the fair line must be somewhere between -0.5 and -0.75, Gremio has been a side able to counter-attack efficiently when ahead altough their coach doesn't hesitate to become fully defensive missing sth like 15 minutes in a scenario they are ahead by 1.
I usually don't like Gremio overs because their defenders are very good and so is the GK, meaning the potential damage of their oiled attack is somewhat "eaten" by that. Perhaps this could be somewhat anulled by the (not confirmed) absence of Kanneman, but still, A.MG just sold a key striker meaning we don't have anything particularly burning towards unders or overs, my fair lines sth like Over 2.5 @1.9 which is standard line for Brazil.
Potential bets: As I write, Gremio -1/2 ball is selling at 1.73 average on oddsportal, which means my lines are about even. I like the idea of buying Gremio at this handicap if down by one unless if sth boils too unexpectedly such as a red card or sth of that nature.
Over 2.5 is running @2.29 which might be a bit of a big price, but still, for me, no early market bets.
In-running bets on Gremio if down the score could be good here, and perhaps that's it.
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