Brazil VS Belgium AH Market Analysis

BRAZIL VS BELGIUM - WORLD CUP QUARTER-FINALS

I have been following closely the World Cup and IMO there's no scenario in which I could agree on such a handicap on Brazil. It's obvious that tradition count and what is called in Brazil the "weight of the shirt" meaning the historical record of Brazil's 5 titles and Belgium being pressured to make history is a factor, but IMO Brazil has displayed significant flaws all over Group Stage and particularly against Mexico.

If Brazil conceeds all the space through the middle and the wings they allowed Mexico to have IMO Belgium will have an easy way towards the semis. Japan looked keener than Brazil today in terms of protecting their defensive area (1st 1/3 of the pitch).

Formations seem to be very problematic for Brazil in this World Cup, and IMO the way Belgium plays could unlock Brazil's defensive flaws far easier than any other adversary they faced in this WC.

When Brazil is defending through the "middle of the middle" they look like a 4-3-3, but when they are coming back from attack and Coutinho is ahead, the thruth is they have been looking more like a messy 4-2-4.

Casemiro is indeed a key player of their midfield and if we see such a strong Belgian midfield with a 3-6-1 formation like the 2nd half against Japan, chances should flourish for Belgium.

I also think that Brazil would have serious aerial threats if we see Lukaku, Fellaini, Witsel, Kompany and Vertonghen together trying to head.

I'm completely aware that Belgium displayed several problems when defending from Japan's counter-attacks, and Brazil might have good chances through both wings with Willian and Neymar. IMO that is the very aspect of the game that levels things in terms of chances.

If I saw some advantage I'd tend to see it for Belgium. Of course we can consider the pressure they will feel once again and perhaps Brazil feels the historical weight on their side, but through to be told the team has proven to be quite anxious and IMO that simply doesn't explain a heavy advantage between 1/2 and 1/4 ball such as we are seeing in the Asian Handicap as of now.

If you don't believe Brazil is that good like I do and Belgium has decent winning chances then +0.25 @2.1+ seems very good.

If, however, you think the AH is unbalanced but not that keen on Belgium, you might want to buy Belgium +1/2 ball @1.8+ as widely available and hedge ASAP.

Either way, Belgian lines looking valuable to me!