My articles at Scorum

       I've been recently invited to join the Scorum community and the very most of my original texts will be published there 1st. I remain open for proposals to write for private syndicates or investors in the Brazilian Serie A football for the time being as one of my partnerships is due to expire and my own syndicate plans should take a while before unfolding.

Below you have an article about Libertadores Outright Betting Scenario

https://scorum.com/en-us/betting/@lucasmondelo/libertadores-outright-betting-analysis

Gremio VS Atl. MG (AH Preview, Brazil A R13)

Gremio: The hosts have proved to be good at their domains on several occasions during past seasons and that's not exactly breaking news atm, the good and perhaps not-much-noticed value of Gremio lies upon the fact the team usually remains cold e.g. when they suffer early goals at home. The hosts fans are very demanding and usually booing during 1st half isn't a rare thing if they feel the side is underperfoming. In sum, strong hosts with a strong predicted line-up. I don't worry much about the news that Kanneman CB has caught a cold and didn't train during the week because the 1st choice sub CB Bressan seems very good atm, not world class like Kanneman but surely good enough to form a strong cb duo with International Geromel.

Atlético MG: We are yet to see how the selling of Roger Guedes ATT will affect their capacity of "having teeth to bite" upfront, but I still must highlight they had a very solid first semester and their 2nd post is definitely not undeserved.

Asian Handicap Scenario: My fair lines for Gremio's victory lie in the house of 55 to 60%, meaning that the fair line must be somewhere between -0.5 and -0.75, Gremio has been a side able to counter-attack efficiently when ahead altough their coach doesn't hesitate to become fully defensive missing sth like 15 minutes in a scenario they are ahead by 1.

I usually don't like Gremio overs because their defenders are very good and so is the GK, meaning the potential damage of their oiled attack is somewhat "eaten" by that. Perhaps this could be somewhat anulled by the (not confirmed) absence of Kanneman, but still, A.MG just sold a key striker meaning we don't have anything particularly burning towards unders or overs, my fair lines sth like Over 2.5 @1.9 which is standard line for Brazil.

Potential bets: As I write, Gremio -1/2 ball is selling at 1.73 average on oddsportal, which means my lines are about even. I like the idea of buying Gremio at this handicap if down by one unless if sth boils too unexpectedly such as a red card or sth of that nature.

Over 2.5 is running @2.29 which might be a bit of a big price, but still, for me, no early market bets.

In-running bets on Gremio if down the score could be good here, and perhaps that's it.

Brazil A Update 5/10: Atlético MG

First Semester Analysis: Atlético MG has been a strong host so far this season. The side relied a lot on their attackers Ricardo Oliveira and Roger Guedes. We also have a good seasoned GK Victor who has been part of the international selection for some time, but also interesting midfielders and defenders. They are at a comfortable 2nd post on the verge of the Serie A return.

Roger Guedes has just left the side to play in China, the players owner (Palmeiras) sold him to Chinese side Shandong Luneng, and that is the kind of market movement which could be of importance. He was part of an oiled attack of good success so far in the season.

I don't like the coach situation simply because 10 seasons of Brazilian football covered professionaly tell me that interims that start well tend to become problematic far more often than they become solid new names in the market. It's pure math and history actually, and I expect coaches with a "small name" to be a potential issue whenever the pressure becomes too strong.

Summarizing... I like the squad but the coach name doesn't seem fit for a club as big as A.MG.
Probably a good team to be bought at home under valuable prices, i.e. e.g. down by 1 during 1st half against mid to poor visitors.

Brazil A update 4/20: Cruzeiro (Brazil Cup impressions)

Yesterday we had the return of Brazilian Football via the national cup fixture against Atlético PR. Cruzeiro could draw to go through to the next cup phase so 1x1 was what they needed.

A few interesting details could be observed about Cruzeiro, the current title holders:

We still have a very solid GK (Fábio), the defensive line of 4 seems heavy in terms of names but could still improve considering their potential, Edilson could become more of a RWB like his Gremio days, and Dedé CB afterall is still recovering from recurrent, several injuries in a row. Léo seemed decent, and the LB also wasn't a positive or negative highlight.

In terms of highlights, Rafael Sóbis played like an a winger or attacker that was "very linked " to the midfielders actions and that opened lots of spaces all the way through Atlético's team.

He had also a fantastic long distance shot from outside the box that has almost beaten the Atlético GK.

The biggest lesson about Cruzeiro seems to be that they look like a decent host to back over this 2nd part of season, to be observed closely especially when nice opportunities such as down by 1 against mid to poor teams show up.

Brazil A Update 3/20: Internacional

INTER'S FIRST SEMESTER: They had a modest performance at the Brazilian Cup and the Regional Gauchão, the club is in a deep financial crisis which has many details that could fill 15-20 pages easily on the matter. Inter has been more consistent than many had expected, however, some teams like Gremio rested players in occasions related to cup games.

Inter is recovering from a dramatic relegation which melted deeply  their institutional peace amongst fans/dirigents and press in the crossfire too. We could saw that considering only the non-relegation goal they are doing well

Their capitain and old Attacking Midfielder D'Alessandro has been injured during the moments they have collected these points, which leads us onto..

WORLD CUP BREAK TEAM NEWS/UPDATES: There haven't been breaking news signings or departures. However some gossip about a fight between sub AM Camilo and the capitain, because of a rumoured affair with his wife or whatever, some "the sun cover" menace like that, has been subject of much stress from D'Alessandro, he even went to a police station to register a formal complaint against dozens of people, and the police agreed that he "had reasons" meaning fans of Gremio or whatever were abusing his family in the on-line world about the "matter".

He has also been complaining that "some people" don't want him back at the team after this winnings period, implying that he could somehow have been the cause of issues or that his return could jeopardize them, sth like that.

The "no news big news" scenario is far from this one, but we also don't have any solid issue. Inter has to be followed closely as the recent past suggest that they collapse fastly when under particular situations such as early goals of visitors at their home or other sources of pressure from fans.

In a nutshell, too many fragile things in their entire club/fans/press universe since their return.

PREDICTIONS AND ASIAN HANDICAP
I think they have collected a nice % of points so far and they'd really have to underperform and absolutely meltdown to relegate again, but they seem weak to sustain a dispute for the "direct group stage qualification spots" of Libertadores.  IMO an indirect qualification could be a rather realistic goal.

I'm a big fan of In-Running bets in Brazil and Inter could offer value here, meaning that a few signs of immediate collapse could mean good AH value before a complete avalanche.

Brazil A Update 2/20 - Flamengo

FLAMENGO'S FIRST SEMESTER: Flamengo ended the "pre-world cup" 12 rounds as leaders.

They are alive at all competitions that matter (Serie A, Brazil Cup and Libertadores). However, they face Gremio at the Cup, which is a competition that their adversaries are the biggest winners in history together with Cruzeiro, who they also face in Libertadores. The point here is Flamengo has been seeded harshly towards difficult Brazilian teams in the cups, and they ended 1st in the table by round 12. This is leading towards a potentially interesting info in the AH market (last paragraph).

They ended well this part of the year but it's not looking like they got any stronger during the break

RUMOURS AND TEAM NEWS DURING THE CUP TIME: The limited interim coach will stay, also, they lost an important player (Vinicius Junior) who will finally join Real Madrid (either to play or be loaned within Europe to become lesser greener). IMO it's basically bad news for Flamengo.

ASIAN HANDICAP POTENTIAL BARGAINS

A key attacker is leaving, and a coach with little name is staying indefinitely. This is the kind of thing that hardly ever works longer than half a season in Brazil. Flamengo is perhaps the club with the biggest club/press pressure and a coach without a name could not resist when key fixtures start being placed every other 3.5 days. 

I guess the most relevant thing is they have factors that could push their very good % of points collected so far to a lower one. 

There's a nother tip too...

There is an understanding in the press that a peculiar situation in the schedule of fixtures might inffluence how Flamengo and Gremio will face the fixture. Fla and Gremio will play at cup and Serie A in the same week, and there's a general understanding that they desire opposite things the most, i.e. Gremio wants Cup Fla the Serie A, so some kind of dirty exchange of pseudo favors could be seen, i.e. Gremio Regulars VS Fla Sub team @ Cup and Flamengo Regs VS Gremio subs @ Serie A.

This is a fact to be observed.

Brazil VS Belgium AH Market Analysis

BRAZIL VS BELGIUM - WORLD CUP QUARTER-FINALS

I have been following closely the World Cup and IMO there's no scenario in which I could agree on such a handicap on Brazil. It's obvious that tradition count and what is called in Brazil the "weight of the shirt" meaning the historical record of Brazil's 5 titles and Belgium being pressured to make history is a factor, but IMO Brazil has displayed significant flaws all over Group Stage and particularly against Mexico.

If Brazil conceeds all the space through the middle and the wings they allowed Mexico to have IMO Belgium will have an easy way towards the semis. Japan looked keener than Brazil today in terms of protecting their defensive area (1st 1/3 of the pitch).

Formations seem to be very problematic for Brazil in this World Cup, and IMO the way Belgium plays could unlock Brazil's defensive flaws far easier than any other adversary they faced in this WC.

When Brazil is defending through the "middle of the middle" they look like a 4-3-3, but when they are coming back from attack and Coutinho is ahead, the thruth is they have been looking more like a messy 4-2-4.

Casemiro is indeed a key player of their midfield and if we see such a strong Belgian midfield with a 3-6-1 formation like the 2nd half against Japan, chances should flourish for Belgium.

I also think that Brazil would have serious aerial threats if we see Lukaku, Fellaini, Witsel, Kompany and Vertonghen together trying to head.

I'm completely aware that Belgium displayed several problems when defending from Japan's counter-attacks, and Brazil might have good chances through both wings with Willian and Neymar. IMO that is the very aspect of the game that levels things in terms of chances.

If I saw some advantage I'd tend to see it for Belgium. Of course we can consider the pressure they will feel once again and perhaps Brazil feels the historical weight on their side, but through to be told the team has proven to be quite anxious and IMO that simply doesn't explain a heavy advantage between 1/2 and 1/4 ball such as we are seeing in the Asian Handicap as of now.

If you don't believe Brazil is that good like I do and Belgium has decent winning chances then +0.25 @2.1+ seems very good.

If, however, you think the AH is unbalanced but not that keen on Belgium, you might want to buy Belgium +1/2 ball @1.8+ as widely available and hedge ASAP.

Either way, Belgian lines looking valuable to me!